NFL Week 17

I didn't quite get around to making my picks, but here's the rundown of how I would have called the games:

NYG @ MIN: NYG
STL @ ATL: ATL
NE @ BUF: NE
DET @ GB: DET
CAR @ NO: NO
CHI @ HOU: CHI
CLE @ PIT: PIT
KC @ CIN: KC
TEN @ IND: IND
OAK @ TB: TB
JAC @ BAL: BAL
MIA @ NYJ: MIA
DAL @ PHI: DAL
WAS @ SF: WAS
SEA @ ARI: ARI
DEN @ SD: DEN

This would have given me a record of 7-9, not very good. So this is how my season went:

Week 17: 7-9
Week 16: 9-7
Week 15: 7-9
Week 14: 13-3
Week 13: 13-3
Week 12: 13-3
Week 11: 13-3
Week 10: 11-3
Week 9: 8-6
Week 8: 8-6
Week 7: 6-8
Week 6: 8-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 4: 7-6
Week 3: 12-4

My tally will be 31 games short, missing weeks 1 and 2, but for the 15 weeks I did call, I was 144-81, which means overall my guesses were much better than coin flips. (If you flipped a coin, you'd expect to have guessed correctly on around 104-120 games in that duration. For all 256 games, the range is about 120-136.)

Now, we just have the playoffs, which Denver so gracefully missed, having a 3 game lead on San Diego with 3 games to go. But this is Denver we're talking about. And I can only say: better luck next season.

Right now, I'm hoping for a Manning-on-Manning Super Bowl. I think that would be the greatest showdown in football yet.

NFL Week 16

IND @ JAC: IND 24-22

BAL @ DAL: BAL 16-14

CIN @ CLE: CIN 17-12

PIT @ TEN: TEN 13-9

SF @ STL: SF 24-10

SD @ TB: TB 34-20

MIA @ KC: KC 21-20

NO @ DET: NO 33-21

ARI @ NE: NE 24-21

HOU @ OAK: HOU 27-16

BUF @ DEN: DEN 30-20

NYJ @ SEA: NYJ 24-17

ATL @ MIN: ATL 24-23

PHI @ WAS: PHI 31-14

CAR @ NYG: CAR 22-14

GB @ CHI: CHI 30-21

Confidence: 10-6

Week 15: 7-9
Week 14: 13-3
Week 13: 13-3
Week 12: 13-3
Week 11: 13-3
Week 10: 11-3
Week 9: 8-6
Week 8: 8-6
Week 7: 6-8
Week 6: 8-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 4: 7-6
Week 3: 12-4

NFL Week 15

NO @ CHI: NO (It is a big gamble betting on NO on a road game, but CHI has been just an inconsistent as NO. While Ortan may be back in good shape and the passing defense has stepped up, Brees should still be able to pick apart CHI. I expect this to be high scoring and close. 32-28)

SF @ MIA: MIA (Two things will work against SF: the first is turnovers, and the second is traveling to the east coast. 19-10)

TB @ ATL: ATL (I see no reason to believe that TB will upset the home-streak in the NFC South. But then, all four teams are very capable, and this will be a showdown as much as any other NFC South game. 35-33)

WAS @ CIN: WAS (CIN's woes just continue unabated, and while WAS has struggled, they should be equal to CIN. It will probably be a low-scorer. 17-9)

SD @ KC: KC (I have a feeling SD is going to try too hard and blow this game. I think Rivers will throw two critical interceptions that will undermine the whole game, and SD will lose a close one in Arrowhead Stadium. 21-20)

GB @ JAC: GB (GB should be able to top the woeful JAC, who are without their best receiver and might be short one of their two primary running backs. Couple that with poor performance overall, and GB should not have to worry about a last minute comeback for victory. 27-18)

TEN @ HOU: TEN (It is hard to see how TEN could blow this one. They're still driving strong, and while HOU is resurgent late in the season, they will fall to 6-8. 27-21)

SEA @ STL: SEA (I give this to the team with the exiting coach, who will want to play hard for him. Maybe, having played close several games against play-off contending teams, SEA will find the opportunity here to post another W. The least that can be said is that at least one of the teams will have 3 wins after this game. 24-10)

DET @ IND: IND (DET seems to be on the verge of running through QBs the way DEN is running through running backs. This mix-up will make it very difficult for DET to mount an offense, and its woeful defense will not stop Manning. 30-10)

BUF @ NYJ: NYJ (Mainly, due to Edward's injury, I doubt that BUF will manage their first AFC East victory. After two losses, Favre will be ready to go. 27-13)

MIN @ ARI: ARI (MIN at times has been inconsistent, and they might be having some problem with the QB position, after Frerotte's injury. But I pick the home team in a contest that should be close. 30-28)

NE @ OAK: NE (I think we might see a reprise of Favre's performance in blowing OAK after his father's death. Cassel--and let us all offer prayers for his father--might come back and lead NE to a much needed victory. OAK, on the other hand, is struggling and struggling and, more important, struggling. If NE can keep OAK from scoring on special teams, they might be able to keep OAK from scoring altogether. 17-6)

PIT @ BAL: BAL (Of the two, BAL has shown more resilience of late, but it will be a nail-biter. 19-17)

DEN @ CAR: DEN (Once again, just making my team the winning pick. CAR should have this one in the bag, but DEN has been surprising before, and might just sweep the NFC South. 34-30)

NYG @ DAL: NYG (I expect the woes to keep piling up on DAL, and NYG to be resurgent after last week's loss. But then, DAL should win if NYG receivers still can't catch the ball. 24-22)

CLE @ PHI: PHI (If this is a contest, then Reid and McNabb better be working on their resumes. 30-9)

Confidence: 10-6

Week 14: 13-3
Week 13: 13-3
Week 12: 13-3
Week 11: 13-3
Week 10: 11-3
Week 9: 8-6
Week 8: 8-6
Week 7: 6-8
Week 6: 8-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 4: 7-6
Week 3: 12-4

NFL Week 14

OAK @ SD: SD (While SD has had its share of struggles and is only one game ahead of OAK in the division, I expect they'll come out swinging harder than OAK. It will be a tough game, though, just like the game against KC was tough. 17-6)

JAC @ CHI: CHI (Expect CHI to regroup from last week in their typical swing of good to bad to good. JAC, on the other hand, is pretty much out of the playoff picture, is in disarray, and is only fighting to avoid losing a fifth straight game. The only boon is that they're on the road, where they're 3-3, versus 1-5 at home. 21-17)

HOU @ GB: GB (I think this game will just be a matter of GB outscoring HOU, especially since HOU has such a bad track record away from home. 33-28)

MIN @ DET: MIN (It is hard to see how MIN can give this one away, which probably means they will. It is a division rivalry game, and those are always harder than any other games. 24-16)

CIN @ IND: IND (CIN seems to be continuing to spiral downwards in Palmer's absence, while IND seems to be creeping back to healthy players and healthy play. 24-14)

CLE @ TEN: TEN (Losing both first and second string QB's is a blow. CLE will play their hearts out, I'm sure, but it won't be near enough. Mistakes will only seal the deal for TEN. 27-9)

PHI @ NYG: NYG (This should be a close game. Missing Burress will have an effect, undoubtedly, but NYG is still running strong. PHI, on the other hand, has been inconsistent, and it likely the NYG defense will pressure McNabb into a few costly mistakes, especially late. 34-30)

ATL @ NO: NO (Home field is magic in the NFC South. NO is especially prolific at home. I expect Brees to throw for 380+ in a high-scoring game. 33-28)

MIA @ BUF: MIA (Edwards is either out or questionable, and that will make a huge difference. Playing in Canada probably won't aid BUF, either. 17-14)

NE @ SEA: NE (After the bruising PIT handed them last week, NE will probably come back in peak performance. SEA, on the other hand, just isn't doing well, even with Hasselbeck back. The 34-9 loss to DAL does not bode well for this meeting, even if it is at home. 24-20)

KC @ DEN: DEN (Hopefully DEN will keep consistent from last week. They had spark and fire and played defense moderately well. They have to keep in mind that any division game won't be easy, no matter the records. That destroyed them in Week 4, and again against OAK in Week 12. But they should be able to avenge their previous loss to KC. 34-12)

NYJ @ SF: NYJ (Last week was a wake-up call to NYJ, and wide awake, they should manage to win handily against SF. 31-17)

STL @ ARI: ARI (Home field and a weak opponent, even a division rival, should be enough to set ARI back into action. 30-20)

DAL @ PIT: PIT (I expect snow to make a difference, but this will be a game to watch. 10-9)

WAS @ BAL: BAL (It is possible that WAS will stand up to BAL's defense, but their record in the past few games hasn't been impressive. 21-14)

TB @ CAR: CAR (This is a tough call. TB might be the better team, but I think it is reasonable to stick with the home field magic in the NFC South. It is by no means a guarantee, but the NFC South leads the league in home wins, having only lost 2. (The AFC West is worst, with 16 home losses.) 34-33)

Confidence: 10-6

Week 13: 13-3
Week 12: 13-3
Week 11: 13-3
Week 10: 11-3
Week 9: 8-6
Week 8: 8-6
Week 7: 6-8
Week 6: 8-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 4: 7-6
Week 3: 12-4

NFL Week 13

TEN @ DET: TEN (DET is struggling so much, and just when it seems they might be able to start putting things together, more things fall apart. I don't think they'll have the ignominy of being the only team to go 0-16, but this won't be the game to reverse their fortunes. Collins is still doing very well, and if his receivers can catch the ball, TEN should be able to deliver on both the pass and the run. 27-12)

SEA @ DAL: DAL (Two quarterbacks back in action for the third game after injuries, and Romo looks pretty good, while Hasselback is still struggling. What with the passing game and a decent run defense, DAL should dominate. 33-21)

ARI @ PHI: ARI (Frankly, right now Philadelphia is probably going to be more hostile towards their home team than the other team. If McNabb isn't stellar, he is going fighting down the resounding chorus of boos. That kind of strips away the benefit of home field advantage. PHI seems to be crumbling, and at the moment, I don't see any reason to believe that the crumbling will stop. McNabb seems to be on his way out, and a big rebuilding process looms in the horizon. On the other hand, ARI--while coming off a loss--is a team that is all together and performing well. The only problem will a west team going east, which so far has spelled doom. We'll probably see a first half controlled moderately well by PHI, but ARI will probably come alive in the second half and win not just the game, but their division. 24-23)

SF @ BUF: BUF (Hopefully Edwards has rediscovered confidence, especially after a high-scoring thumping of KC. SF is doing all right, but they have a number of factors against them. Their season is essentially over, while BUF is still fighting for a playoff berth, and they are a west team coming east. While I think ARI will overcome that, I don't think SF will. 32-19)

BAL @ CIN: BAL (A top notch defense against the league's worst offense should at least keep this a low scoring game for CIN. Flacco is doing well, still, and I expect that he'll keep the race alive atop the AFC North. 24-9)

CAR @ GB: GB (It wasn't until the second-half, as NO started to open the divide between the two teams, that GB progressed from workman-like to forced to struggling. Against the league's highest powered offense, GB stood toe to toe until one mistake really turned the game against them. Both teams, though, have fluctuated with lopsided victories and losses. However, CAR in the last three games has lost big, and then played very close games, very sloppy games, against two of the league's worst teams. In GB's last three games, they lost big to NO, thumped CHI, and very nearly beat MIN. I think they have the edge this game. 30-27)

NYG @ WAS: NYG (NYG is steamrolling at the moment, and WAS has just started to get their feet back under them. However, they are at home, and this game is by far more important to them than to NYG. If WAS wins, then they'll have only split their games head-to-head, not devastating by any means, and NYG will maintain a 2 game lead in any case. Normally this would lead me to lean towards WAS, but NYG's defense is still playing strong. They won a high-scoring match against ARI, squashed BAL, and won a shoot-out against PHI. WAS has lost against DAL, lost against PHI, and only picked up a win against hapless SEA. It will take some serious effort on their part to win, and I don't think we'll see it. 24-20)

NO @ TB: TB (While NO is great at racking up the yards, they don't do well on the road. Moreover, TB has a top-rated pass defense, which means that Drew Brees might struggle. NO is predominantly a passing team, and it will be interesting to see if TB can truly ruin the passing game. Either way, it will be tough. If it comes down to a shootout, TB will still probably eek out a win, but it will probably be TB in the lead the whole time, though never comfortably. 27-24)

IND @ CLE: IND (Manning seems to be back in rhythm, while CLE has to go on without their star rookie QB, as Quinn has a broken finger. We'll probably see more of a running game, but IND should keep the game well in hand. 27-16)

MIA @ STL: MIA (MIA has been doing fairly well this season, though their record might make them seem slightly better than they are. But while STL has won a pair of interesting games, they've done nothing since, dropping five straight. In the past three games, they've averaged barely more than a touchdown a game. MIA should be able to run all over STL. 27-13)

ATL @ SD: ATL (I think that what we'll see is a game predominantly controlled by ATL's running game, assisted by a passing game that should do well against SD's last-place pass defense. While Rivers will probably be able to keep it close, ATL should be able to punch it home with their running duo. 31-21)

KC @ OAK: KC (While OAK managed to run up the score on DEN, KC has been more consistent in their play of late. They've managed to score points and play some good games in their recent losses. Even the blowout against BUF shouldn't be that demoralizing considering KC scored 31 points. KC should be able to move the ball against OAK and score. OAK, on the other hand, is struggling, even with their victory over DEN. In their four prior games, they barely managed to meet that total they scored against DEN. In this case, the more consistent play should win. 28-13)

PIT @ NE: PIT (This will be NE's first big challenge to their offense, and it is quite possible PIT will shut them down. Expect this one to be close. 20-17)

DEN @ NYJ: DEN (And only because I feel obligated to pick DEN. NYJ looks to have this well in hand, with a power offense that has taken on beaten down the league's last undefeated team. DEN looks sloppier and sloppier, though that in part is due to injuries. The hope will be that Cutler will be able to throw the ball sufficiently to keep the game a tight race, and that DEN will come through at the end with a last-second field goal. 34-31)

CHI @ MIN: MIN (In CHI's last four game, two have been losses, and the two wins were against teams that currently have two wins between them. When CHI and MIN last met, it was a 48-41 shootout, and it will probably seem that way at first. MIN will probably take control of the game late in the third and never look back. 30-21)

JAC @ HOU: HOU (HOU played it close last time, and for their record they're doing fairly well. JAC, on the other hand, is really struggling. Isn't about time that HOU didn't end up at the bottom of their division? Well, if they win this one, they'll have at least one week not there. 23-20)

Confidence: 10-6

Week 12: 13-3
Week 11: 13-3
Week 10: 11-3
Week 9: 8-6
Week 8: 8-6
Week 7: 6-8
Week 6: 8-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 4: 7-6
Week 3: 12-4

NFL Week 12

CIN @ PIT: PIT 24-10

NE @ MIA: NE 33-20

PHI @ BAL: BAL 17-10

HOU @ CLE: CLE 28-24

SF @ DAL: DAL 34-26

NYJ @ TEN: NYJ 24-23

BUF @ KC: BUF 21-19

CHI @ STL: CHI 24-10

MIN @ JAC: MIN 28-27

TB @ DET: TB 21-9

OAK @ DEN: DEN 34-16

CAR @ ATL: ATL 31-25

WAS @ SEA: WAS 24-20

NYG @ ARI: NYG 21-17

IND @ SD: IND 30-22

GB @ NO: GB 34-30

Confidence: 11-5

Week 11: 13-3
Week 10: 11-3
Week 9: 8-6
Week 8: 8-6
Week 7: 6-8
Week 6: 8-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 4: 7-6
Week 3: 12-4

NFL Week 11

NYJ @ NE: NYJ (I just think that it is time. Favre has improved with NYJ continually, and they're capable of racking up the points. NE is still a a great team, but will be hard pressed. 30-21)

OAK @ MIA: MIA (OAK is terrible, and while MIA is only about average, they have everything they need to keep their winning streak alive. 20-9)

DET @ CAR: CAR (DET is still floundering, and a couple of weeks isn't quite enough to work a new quarterback into an offense. 28-17)

CHI @ GB: GB (This will probably be a tough struggle for both teams. I expect turnovers to make a large difference, and GB will sneak past with a fourth quarter field goal. 31-29)

NO @ KC: NO (KC did well against SD last week, but SD's offensive performance left much to be desired. Brees will probably throw for another 400+ yard game, but this time I think he'll find the endzone often enough to carry a win. 27-21)

BAL @ NYG: NYG (In the end, I think Manning will lead his team to victory, though Flacco will have played his heart out. 21-20)

PHI @ CIN: PHI (McNabb will probably lead his team to some big scoring. 28-17)

MIN @ TB: TB (I give this to the home team, but this will be a game to watch. 24-21)

HOU @ IND: IND (IND finally seems to have found traction, and HOU looks to have lost what they had. Still, this will probably be a close game. 24-18)

DEN @ ATL: DEN (Home team call on this one. If Cutler can cut back on throwing interceptions, he should be able to lead the Broncos to score. And I'm predicted that Ryan will be so surprised at how BAD the DEN defense is, that he'll fumble the ball. 31-27)

STL @ SF: SF (This is a great match up. Hopefully one team will emerge with third victory this season. I think SF is better prepared to do that, and has the home field advantage. 24-10)

ARI @ SEA: SEA (I'm picking this as my upset of the week. Hasselback looks to be coming back, and that could revitalize SEA. ARI was not exactly stellar on Monday, and now they're at SEA, which is notoriously hard to play in. 27-23)

TEN @ JAC: TEN (I don't think it is time just yet. JAC will probably struggle on the run, but keep up with TEN until the end. 16-13)

SD @ PIT: PIT (I think Big Ben will tear apart SD's secondary, and SD won't mount much on offense. 24-14)

DAL @ WAS: DAL (Romo's back, and PIT showed what it takes to crush WAS. I think the rivalry makes it a tough game, but DAL will avenge its home loss to WAS. 26-20)

CLE @ BUF: BUF (I just don't find CLE to be a convincing team. They were doing well against BAL, true, but their score against DEN isn't that surprising, given how terrible DEN's defense is. I think Quinn will make mistakes, Edwards will be a little more consistent, and BUF will pull out a close win. 22-20)

Confidence: 11-5

Week 10: 11-3
Week 9: 8-6
Week 8: 8-6
Week 7: 6-8
Week 6: 8-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 4: 7-6
Week 3: 12-4

NFL Week 10

DEN @ CLE: DEN (Two struggling teams, but I think DEN's offense will be able to move the ball against CLE. I expect it will be a tough game for both teams, with lots of mistakes, and lots of blown defensive opportunities. 28-25)

NO @ ATL: NO (NO has had a rocky season thus far, but ATL is not as impressive as they may seem. They blew out OAK last weekend, but more impressive was NO's defeat of SD in London. Even with injuries, I think NO's high-powered offense will come through. 32-20)

TEN @ CHI: TEN (I think Grossman will have a difficult time moving the ball against TEN, but I think it will probably be another close one. 16-14)

JAC @ DET: DET (This is probably a mistake, but I think this is DET's chance to make their first (and possibly only) win this season. 24-23)

SEA @ MIA: MIA (I still don't think MIA is all that good, but SEA is doing pretty poorly, as well. IF MIA can slow down SEA's 31st-ranked offense, they should win handily. 21-10)

BUF @ NE: NE (I think BUF has the ability, but that homefield advantage will be the deciding factor. 21-19)

STL @ NYJ: NYJ (STL is having issues, and despite two wins after changing coaches, they're not on track to do much better than they started. Favre might make a few more mistakes this week, but I don't think that will be enough to turn the game around for STL. 24-14)

GB @ MIN: MIN (I don't have any good feel for this, so I'll take the team with a good rusher over the team with a poor run defense. 28-24)

BAL @ HOU: BAL (BAL seems to be chugging along strong, while HOU is struggling somewhat with injuries. 14-12)

CAR @ OAK: CAR (CAR should have this one handled. 27-13)

IND @ PIT: PIT (Even without Big Ben, PIT's defense may be more than Manning can handle. 21-18)

KC @ SD: SD (If SD loses this one, they're in a world of hurt, but I sincerely doubt KC stands much of a chance. 31-13)

NYG @ PHI: NYG (It will be a tough game, but NYG has the defense to shut down PHI (although that doesn't mean the defense will do so) and Manning is doing well this season. If he avoids throwing three picks like he did against CLE, this should be a NYG victory. 28-27)

SF @ ARI: ARI (ARI is doing well, SF is struggling and went down hard against a poor SEA team. 26-19)

Confidence: 9-5

Week 9: 8-6
Week 8: 8-6
Week 7: 6-8
Week 6: 8-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 4: 7-6
Week 3: 12-4

NFL Week 9

HOU @ MIN: HOU (I think HOU has the drive and the ability, but they still have yet to prove themselves. MIN has been inconsistent as well. They're weak on defending the pass, but strong offensively on the run. It will be interesting to see which proves to be the dominant factor. 24-23)

NYJ @ BUF: NYJ (I think Favre is going to have one of his "on" games, and if he can strike early, it will mean that BUF has to scramble to keep up. With the mistakes Edwards has been making, it is quite likely NYJ will break is losing streak to BUF. 21-15)

DET @ CHI: CHI (I'm not quite willing to say this will be the week for DET. It is coming, though. 27-20)

BAL @ CLE: CLE (Back in the Pound, CLE will probably do well. 17-14)

TEN @ GB: GB (TEN losing. It has to happen one of these days, right? 30-17)

ARI @ STL: ARI (Against a division rival that ARI has performed well against, we should see the NFC West leader pick up another game. 31-20)

TB @ KC: TB (Either KC will show up like they did against DEN, or this will be an excellent chance for TB to turn their game around after last week's loss to DAL. 35-10)

JAC @ CIN: JAC (CIN needs a high-powered offense to keep up with what its defense lets through, and it just isn't up to snuff yet. 27-15)

MIA @ DEN: DEN (Home team sentiment here. DEN has to prove they can stop the opponent on defense. If it becomes a high-scoring punch-out, DEN can't keep slipping by with last second luck. 33-23)

ATL @ OAK: OAK (Two rookie QB's combat! I think this might be a battle of pratfalls. 23-20)

DAL @ NYG: NYG (I think NYG's defense will prove the crucial factor here, sacking Johnson at least 4 times. 28-19)

PHI @ SEA: PHI (PHI is just the better team. SEA made strides against SF, but hasn't managed anything decent against tough opponents. 35-26)

NE @ IND: IND (This might just be a prejudice pick, but I think IND will put NE down. IND is capable, even banged up as it is, to go the distance, and NE's last two victories have been over STL (total of 5 wins over the past 23 games), and DEN, who folded like a lawn chair. IND showed some capacity at defense last week, and that might be the difference. 24-21)

PIT @ WAS: PIT (PIT's defense should shut Portis down, and while Big Ben might face a few more sacks and a lot of blitzes, he can manage his team to victory. 23-20)

Confidence: 8-6

Week 8: 8-6
Week 7: 6-8
Week 6: 8-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 4: 7-6
Week 3: 12-4

NFL Week 8

BAL @ OAK: BAL (A good defense can stymie OAK, and BAL has a good defense. I don't expect a high score, though. 17-13)

ARI @ CAR: CAR (I simply give this to the home team. CAR has shown the ability to both trounce and be trounced. ARI has a history of not doing well, and this season has not been doing well on the road. I think this is a game to watch, though. 24-20)

TB @ DAL: TB (Losing quarterback hurts, and last week's loss against STL highlighted problems with DAL other than offensive woes. The combination of Romo's absence and a defense that has for most of the season permitted the opponent to remain in the game does not bode well. 27-17)

WAS @ DET: WAS (In trying to debate a potential upset, I looked at a couple of factors. One, while WAS lost to STL, STL has done a major transformation in the change of head coaches. This isn't necessarily a huge negtaive for WAS. Two, WAS has done well, and they shut down a CLE offense that is quite capable of racking up the points. Three, while DET has played two close games in the past couple of weeks, consider that neither HOU nor MIN have the greatest defenses. True, MIN's defense is good against the run, but consider that MIN gives up 21 points a game and gave up over 40 against CHI. HOU is rank 31st in giving up points. These factors suggest to me another loss for DET. 24-10)

BUF @ MIA: BUF (MIA's success has come from some very well-executed gimmicks, and other teams have adjusted enough to dampen their victory march. Still, should be a good game to watch. 23-20)

SD @ NO: NO (The question becomes who can put up the more offense. SD has not been running the ball well and might try to make gains there, but NO's run defense isn't terrible. The passing game will be key, and SD is rank 32nd in pass defense. I think this will be a high-scorer. 36-30)

ATL @ PHI: PHI (I give this to the home team just off a bye week. I expect the defense will harry ATL's rookie QB, and McNabb will put up some good numbers. 27-10)

KC @ NYJ: NYJ (KC has lost Croyle and Huard for the season; Johnson is not going to play because of legal charges; the whole team is still reeling this season. I won't say it will be a cakewalk for Favre and NYJ, but I think Favre will redouble his efforts after last week's disappointing loss to OAK. 26-9)

STL @ NE: STL (DEN has a tendency to make third-stringers look like Pro-Bowlers, so NE's victory over DEN doesn't mean a whole lot. At the same time, winning against DAL and an absent Romo doesn't necessarily mean much for STL. If NE thinks it has a running game and a defense just from playing DEN, they'll choke on STL. This will probably look more like STL's win over WAS, though--uncertain until the final play. 17-14)

CIN @ HOU: HOU (HOU is better than their record shows, and CIN is just as bad as their record shows. Without Palmer and with Ocho-Cinco not performing very well, HOU should manage to force CIN to 0-8. 28-20)

CLE @ JAC: CLE (I'm going out on a limb here, but if CLE can put together a game like they did against NYG, they should do well. Consider that JAC's last victory came over DEN, who has been playing notoriously poorly of late, the two teams should be well matched up. 20-19)

NYG @ PIT: PIT (I think PIT is a slightly better team and has home-field advantage. It should be a predominantly defensive game. 17-13)

SEA @ SF: SF (Really just a home team pick here. Potential things that favor SF: new coach, division rival, has already beat SEA. Potential things against SF: new coach, division rival, has already beat SEA. 22-21)

IND @ TEN: IND (I pick this as an upset game. I don't think IND is back together yet, but who knows? 16-14)

Confidence: 9-5

Week 7: 6-8
Week 6: 8-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 4: 7-6
Week 3: 12-4

Week Seven Picks

SD @ BUF: SD (BUF is a decent team, but they don't have a high-powered offense. The defense will hopefully make it a game, but SD will probably dominate the whole way through. 27-17)

NO @ CAR: NO (NO has the ability to play a fabulous game away from home. They just need to not hinge the game on a last-minute field goal attempt. 26-18.)

MIN @ CHI: CHI (It might be risky routing for CHI again, but MIN barely eked out a win against DET last week, and their stunning victory over NO came courtesy of NO running out of feet to shoot themselves in. It will be touch-and-go, though. 22-21)

PIT @ CIN: PIT (Two key factors are for PIT, namely that Palmer is still out and that Big Ben plays very well in Ohio. The one factor against PIT is that a team at 0-6, looking at a potential 0-7, against a division rival can play very, very hard. 20-16)

TEN @ KC: TEN (I think KC will need one more game to start pulling things together, now that Croyle is back. 17-13)

BAL @ MIA: MIA (It seems this season that MIA is no longer M.I.A. Their heartbreaking loss to HOU last week should compel them to make sure BAL won't ever come close to closing the deal. 33-14.)

SF @ NYG: NYG (I expect that NYG might be a little more conservative on play calling this week, given the trouncing last week against CLE, but the defense should harry O'Sullivan and shut down Gore, and Ward should have a good running game. 24-14)

DAL @ STL: DAL (Without Romo, it will be tough, but their running game should push them through. 17-12)

DET @ HOU: HOU (HOU managed to pull it all together against a high-scoring MIA offense, and they nearly had it won against IND. DET, however... 27-10)

IND @ GB: IND (I think this will be a slugfest, as Manning and Rodgers face off. 38-35)

NYJ @ OAK: NYJ (New coach, reeling from losses, facing an ever-improving NYJ offense. I expect OAK will actually perform adequately, but it won't be enough. 24-22)

CLE @ WAS: CLE (Sometimes a big win kickstarts everything, other times it is a let down. Everything clicked last week for CLE, and think it will stick this week. 27-21)

SEA @ TB: TB (As well as TB is playing, and as poorly as SEA is doing without Hasselback, this should be another dominating performance by TB. 21-7)

DEN @ NE: DEN (Maybe I'm just playing my favorite here, but DEN definitely has the capability of mimicking SD's performance last week. It doesn't mean they will--this is DEN after all. But with SD surging behing them, they need the win, and hopefully the loss to JAC will spark them to greater efforts. 31-23)

Confidence: 9-5

Week 6: 8-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 4: 7-6
Week 3: 12-4

Week Six Picks

DET @ MIN: MIN (MIN put together a good defense against the high-powered NO offense, with the result of two recovered fumbles, a blocked field goal run back for a touchdown, and general mayhem. DET, on the other hand, hasn't pulled anything together yet, and I don't expect they will do so. 24-10)

CHI @ ATL: CHI (CHI is going to shut down ATL's running game, and that will pose a big problem for QB Matt Ryan. 19-9)

OAK @ NO: NO (Head coach changes may or may not have a large effect, especially if the removal of Lane Kiffin relieves tensions. On the other hand, OAK has not managed to hold onto leads and in general has not played well. That gives NO the advantage on offense, but it will probably be close. 28-24)

CIN @ NYJ: NYJ (I expect this to be a close game with lots of points, though possibly with Favre making points for both teams with big plays and interceptions. 33-30)

MIA @ HOU: HOU (HOU performed well against IND until a last minute debacle. If they're ready for MIA's tricks and protect the ball, they'll do well. 21-17)

CAR @ TB: CAR (CAR's success has largely been due to shutting down the run and forcing QB's to throw. Against KC, they totally remove Larry Johnson from the picture, and they did similarly well against ATL. This will probably be close, though. 24-21)

BAL @ IND: IND (Just picking favorites here. BAL has a good defense, but if Manning shows his stuff, that won't be a huge hindrance, especially since IND isn't running the ball much. On the other hand, BAL could finally have a good scoring game due to IND's defense. It will probably come down to the line again. 24-23)

STL @ WAS: WAS (STL hasn't managed to do anything in any of its 4 games, and WAS has shown an impressive performances against DAL and PHI. 28-13)

JAC @ DEN: DEN (This probably just another picking my favorite, but DEN can move the ball on offense, and its defense actually showed up last week. There's a chance. 28-26)

DAL @ ARI: ARI (ARI is capable of putting up the points, and I expect this to be a shootout. 35-30)

PHI @ SF: PHI (This will probably be more of a defensive battle than it should be. 17-13)

GB @ SEA: GB (I simply think GB is struggling less, and will manage a sound offensive battle against SEA. In addition, looking at SEA's miserable loss to NYG might help the GB defense to pull together. 26-20)

NE @ SD: NE (I predict another heart-breaking loss for SD, but that might just be wishful thinking. 22-21)

NYG @ CLE: NYG (This could be CLE's chance to turn their game around. Supposing, of course, that NYG fails to show up in the same fashion that DEN failed to show up in Arrowhead Stadium in KC. 31-14)

Confidence: 9-5

Week 5: 9-5
Week 4: 7-6
Week 3: 12-4

NFL Week 5 picks

TEN @ BAL: BAL (Maybe I just have something against TEN. But BAL's defense is pretty good, and Flacco is pretty impressive. 20-16)

KC @ CAR: CAR (DEN made KC look like Super Bowl contenders, but it is still KC. 24-10)

CHI @ DET: CHI (Da Bears. 20-6)

ATL @ GB: GB (Defensively GB should do well, and as long as Rodgers is good to go, the offense should move the ball. 23-17)

IND @ HOU: IND (The bye hopefully rested IND players enough to start patching things back together. 28-20)

SD @ MIA: SD (MIA might think they're explosive after drubbing NE, but SD is getting back the confidence. 34-30)

SEA @ NYG: NYG (SEA just doesn't have it together this season, and they're on the road. 21-17)

WAS @ PHI: PHI (Defense and McNabb. It will be harder for PHI if Westbrook is still out, but I think they'll manage. 24-20)

TB @ DEN: DEN (Though Griese has shown himself capable of winning against former teams, I think DEN should have its act together for this one. 24-20)

BUF @ ARI: ARI (No feel on this one. 22-17)

CIN @ DAL: DAL (Surely DAL won't lose this one. 30-15)

NE @ SF: NE (Coming off a bye might be the only good thing to say about NE. 21-20)

PIT @ JAC: PIT (JAC is struggling, but the PIT defense is still very strong. Probably another low-scorer. 19-12)

MIN @ NO: NO (MIN tried to be resurgent and didn't do much, but expect a good running game. 21-17)

Strength of confidence: 10-4

Week 4: 7-6
Week 3: 12-4

Week 4 Results, with Soapboxing

Well, as predicted, I only scored 7-6 this week in my picks. The question one might ask: if I could guess that I would only succeed 7-6, why not change my picks to something stronger? The answer: some of these defeats I just couldn't see.

To be perfectly honest, I suppose I could have conceived of Kansas City toppling Denver, since I knew Denver has historically had problems in Arrowhead Stadium, but the Chiefs have been particularly bad this year, whereas Denver at least had an explosive offense. We will see if that continues. Dallas, too, was supposed to be so strong that there was never any hope for Washington, but they, too, were upset. I did call the Jets beating the Cardinals, though certainly not in such a devastating fashion; I did call Tampa Bay over Green Bay; I did call Carolina over Atlanta; likewise Chicago over Philadelphia. The reason I mention those is that they were risky games, ones that I either couldn't call one way or the other, or was taking a gamble. I will admit that picking Houston over Jacksonville and Minnesota over Tennessee were big gambles I made that didn't pay off, but the lesson is this: any given Sunday, anything can happen. A titan will continue plundering or will fall. A weak team comes together for a few brilliant moments to make an upset, or continues playing poorly. Close teams battle it out to the last nail-biting seconds. Games go into overtime and are largely decided by the coin toss.

As Chris Burman says, that's why they play the game.

I was happy to lose my pick last night on Monday Night Football, but in a sense I still feel justified in my choice. A touchdown--finally, after 11 quarters without a touchdown--seemed to bring Pittsburgh back into the game, but then sacking rookie quarterback Flacco, forcing a fumble that was returned for a touchdown, placed the game firmly into the Steelers' hands. Just like that, a game that had gone all Baltimore had become all Pittsburgh. Of course, that didn't mean the game was over--they fought hard for the rest of the half, and then battled it out in overtime. I like Pittsburgh, and so I'm happy they managed a much-needed win.

There's a lesson to be learned from this, though. In games, the tides can turn quickly. In real life, the tides can turn quickly. When we look at the political sphere, a couple of changes in the nation's fortunes can turn the voters from tending to the right to tending to the left, just as a terrorist attack can swing them back right.

The difference: football is game. Yes, some jobs are at stake, but those predominantly are the coaching positions and starting lineup. Politics, while people seem to treat it like a game, is real life. It is deadly serious. Right now, national politics affect some 300 million people.

When we watched the candidates debate, we see them struggling to maintain a good outward appearance while trying to tear the opponent to shreds. It is all about making cheap political points and not giving any away. In this sense, campaigning and legislating and so on is treated as a game, and that is dangerous. If politics is just a game, then the mentality easily becomes that we're not dealing with real people, real money, real problems.

The economy doesn't crash when Kansas City topples Denver 33-19. It does when bad bills are passed in efforts to score political points. When governing this nation is all about posturing, making a better show than the other guy, and trying to benefit a small target constituency rather than doing what is right, then it does seem like a game.

A game we all lose.

NFL Week 4 picks

ATL @ CAR: CAR (ATL has won against KC (0-3) and DET (0-3), which isn't all that remarkable, though they were solid victories. CAR has played tough against SD and CHI, and their loss to MIN shouldn't be considered too detrimental. Though MIN is 1-2, both losses come against tough teams: IND and GB. However, ATL is starting to get their feet under them, and CAR is plagued by penalties. 14-12)

CLE @ CIN: CIN (No real feel for this one. CLE's defense has done moderately well, especially against PIT, but offensively they haven't put up points. CIN is on the up, having played NYG into overtime, and it may be that Palmer is back on target. However, any game between these two can be a rough and tumble match. 28-24)

HOU @ JAC: HOU (Expect an upset here. HOU needs the win, and JAC is cocky after defeating IND last week. 21-20)

DEN @ KC: DEN (If this isn't a blowout, I'll be disappointed, but then, the past two weeks should have been blowouts, as well. Division rivalries are always tough, but DEN should be able to march the ball all day long on the KC defense. 34-17)

SF @ NO: NO (SF is on the rise, and though NO is 1-2, there's still a lot to be said about NO. It will be hard fought and probably moderately high-scoring on both sides. 33-28)

ARI @ NYJ: NYJ (No real feel on this one, either. I expect that after seeing the kinks last week when Favre was actually allowed to throw the ball, NYJ will have smoothed things out a little. 27-24)

GB @ TB: TB (The main reason, I think, that GB lost to DAL was because GB could not put pressure on Romo. TB's line has been very strong at keep the defense off Griese, and if they do that again, they'll in, hands down. 23-20)

MIN @ TEN: MIN (This is going to be a defensive battle, and when Collins is called forward to make good on passes, he'll cough a couple up. 13-9)

SD @ OAK: SD (This game should be close early, but SD will probably pull away late in the third. 38-24)

BUF @ STL: BUF (STL is changing up their quarterback, but that doesn't fix a beleaguered defense. BUF should take charge of this game and stay afloat all the way through. 24-10)

WAS @ DAL: DAL (WAS will hang with DAL for the first half, but DAL will break it open in the second half. 36-21)

PHI @ CHI: CHI (Expect CHI to have one of their on games this week, but with a huge defensive battle. 17-14)

BAL @ PIT: BAL (Roethlisburger probably won't be 100% in this game, either, and unless the offensive line gets their act together, Big Ben might wind up hurt even worse. 20-10)

Week 3 results: I was 12-4, a record good enough for playoffs. Expected record for Week 4: 7-6